The MVC Rundown

Several conference tournaments are in full swing already, but the best tourney of the weekend takes place in St. Louis.

(We’ll address the issue in another article that the MVC should play its tourney alongside the other “major” conferences on Selection Sunday weekend.)

A rundown of what each team can look forward to during the four-day frolic, in no particular order:

Missouri St.

Can Blake Ahearn win the national free-throw shooting percentage title for a record fourth straight year? Probably not.

Gonzaga’s Derek Raivio is at 95.5 percent, Butler’s A.J. Graves sits at 95.4 percent, while Ahearn is at a mere 93.4 percent.

I couldn’t find in the official NCAA basketball records book whether or not postseason play was included in season-long records. If so, Ahearn still has an outside shot.

But more importantly, most experts think the Bears need a win Friday against Wichita St. to secure an at-large bid. We’ll agree.

Southern Illinois

Can the Salukis close out the MVC season with 14 straight wins? If so, they’ll possibly earn as high as a two-seed in the NCAA tourney.

Any team facing SIU will have to contend with the in-your-face defense employed by head coach Chris Lowery. No team in America have I seen throws a guy at every ball-handler immediately after crossing the half-court line.

This tactic has resulted in the 16th-ranked defense efficiency-wise in the nation.

Only sixteenth, you say? Some folks may simply look at points allowed per game, but since SIU has one of the slower paces in the nation, one can’t look stricly at that stat alone.

Regardless, SIU’s defense is the key to its success.

Creighton

Which team will show up this weekend and beyond? The one that lost nearly as many games as it won in the non-conference schedule, or the one that went 13-5 in Valley play?

An interesting statistic looking at Creighton’s games this season is in 11 of their best defensive rebounding games, they’ve actually managed to lose seven of them.

(The Defense OR% number is what I’m looking at here).

Stopping the opposing team from gathering offensive rebounds is quite key to winning.

As an example, looking at Missouri State’s Defense OR% numbers, they’ve won 12 of their 13 best defensive reobounding games.

This either means Creighton was quite unlucky in their losses, or this is too small of a sample to draw any real conclusions.

Wichita St.

Can the Shockers right the ship and win three straight?

Maybe, but they’ll have to hope the week off allowed them to rest and heal. The multitude of injuries throughout the season most likely hindered their efforts to continue strong through the Valley schedule.

Bradley

Can Jim Les’ squad do what it did last season in earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney?

The Ledger wrote off the Braves last season in early February, but the Braves pulled together a late-season surge which ended with a loss in the MVC finals and a run to the NCAA Sweet Sixteen.

Should the Braves make the MVC finals again, anything’s possible.

Northern Iowa

UNI’s lack of depth is magnified in a three-games-in-three-days format, which is what they’ll have to do to win the MVC tourney.

But if the Panthers’ outside shooting can get hot, they’re capable of pulling a minor miracle of three wins in three days.

Evansville

The Aces are my dark horse among the Thursday-game participants to make a four-day run at the title.

Evansville has size up front, pretty solid guard play, and if they defend well, can beat anyone.

Drake

On the topic of defense, Drake’s is really bad (314th nationally efficiency-wise). Should the Bulldogs manage to get better at stopping their opponent’s shots from going through the hoop, they could make some noise this weekend.

Illinois St.

Another solid dark horse are the Redbirds. Greg Dilligard and Levi Dyer make a nice inside combo, and if only ISU had some big-time guards, it would be a contender.

Indiana St.

The team nobody gives any chance is the team with the longest losing active losing streak in the Valley at six games, and that’s the Sycamores.

But, there are no easy wins in the Valley this year, and looking past the Sycamores would be a mistake. Marico Stinson, Valley Ledger MVC Freshman of the Year, will be a player to watch.